How can we make Social Security solvent?
Karen E. Smith
October 16, 2015 - Urban Institute
In the next year, Social Security is
expected to run short of funds to pay full promised disability benefits. Unless
something is done, available revenue for the combined retirement and disability
system will cover only 79 percent of scheduled benefits in 2034, and the share
falls over time.
For decades, large long-range deficits have loomed for Social Security, but
short-run surpluses have left Congress complacent, unwilling to make the hard
choices to fix the system.
The approaching disability shortfall may spark efforts to reform all of
Social Security, including the much larger retirement program. Several
presidential candidates, including Republican candidate Gov. Chris Christie and
Democratic candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, have put forth serious Social Security
reform plans.
Our analysis shows that some of the most popular reform
options wonft help much. They will only delay for a few years the day when
Social Security can no longer fully pay its promised benefits.
- Modestly raising Social Securityfs full retirement age for people
born after 1960 cuts future retirement benefits, but extends trust fund
reserves by only one year. This option doesnft generate any savings
from people born before 1961, and the savings from younger people donft kick
in until 2022.
- Modestly raising Social Securityfs early retirement age—currently
62—has very little impact on solvency. This option forces many people
to wait longer for their benefits, but it wouldnft change lifetime benefits
much because Social Security raises monthly benefits for people who delay
collecting to offset the reduction in the number of checks they receive.
Raising the early retirement age will likely increase employment for those
able to work longer, increase poverty rates for those unable to work longer,
but do little to help solvency.
- Raising the cap on earnings subject to the Social Security payroll
tax improves solvency but doesnft eliminate the funding gap. Nearly 7
percent of workers have earnings above the wage cap, currently $118,500.
Increasing that cap to $150,000 over three years and then tying it to the
average growth in wages plus 0.5 percentage points extends the trust fund
reserves by only one year. Fully eliminating the cap in 2016 would extend
trust fund reserves by 21 years. Raising the earnings cap also raises Social
Security benefits for high-wage workers because more of their earnings would
be covered by the program, but reduces those workersf after-tax pre-retirement
earnings.
- Reducing cost of living adjustments (COLA) cuts benefits for
long-term recipients but extends trust fund reserves by only one
year. Trimming the COLA by 0.3 percentage points each year would
reduce net income for those ages 62 to 69 by 1.4 percent but by more than 4
percent for those age 85 and older by 2045.
- Increasing the payroll tax rate can significantly improve
solvency. A one percentage point increase in the Social Security
payroll tax rate—to 13.4 percent, paid half by workers and half by
employers—phased in over 10 years beginning in 2016 would extend trust fund
reserves by five years. Trust fund reserves would last an additional 10 years
if the payroll tax were raised 2 percentage points and at least 53 years if it
were raised by 3 percentage points. Payroll tax increases substantially
improve solvency because they affect a lot of people and immediately boost
trust fund assets that accrue interest over time.
Many Social Security reform proposals combine various program changes,
instead of revising only a single rule. We will continue to examine proposals
put forth by presidential candidates, showing how each plan would alter the
systemfs finances and identifying who wins and who loses.